BYD(SZ:002594) Southwest Securities·2026-01-23 10:36Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a critical phase of globalization, with significant advancements in smart technology and robotics expected to drive growth [1][4] - The report highlights the acceleration of smart vehicle development due to favorable policies, technological convergence, and increased consumer demand for intelligent features [4][68] Smart Vehicles - Policy support is enhancing the development of smart driving technologies, with L3 vehicle standards expected to be implemented by 2026, facilitating the growth of the autonomous driving industry [4][53] - The adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is increasing, with new vehicle models showing a significant rise in the installation rates of highway NOA and urban NOA, reaching 30.20% and 34.82% respectively in early 2025 [4][79] - The capital market is witnessing explosive growth in autonomous driving financing, with 35 companies raising over 582 billion yuan in 2025, nearly three times the amount raised in 2023 [4][80] New Energy Vehicles - The continuation of vehicle replacement policies is expected to support sales, with wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles projected to reach 18.16 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4] - Exports of new energy vehicles showed robust growth, with 2.238 million units exported from January to November 2025, marking a 102.5% increase year-on-year [4] Commercial Vehicles - Heavy truck sales are supported by ongoing replacement policies and expected to reach 1.196 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [4] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is poised for rapid growth, with applications in automotive manufacturing expected to enhance production efficiency [4] - The cost of humanoid robots is projected to decrease significantly, from approximately $80,000-$90,000 to $15,000-$20,000 by 2030, driven by advancements in AI and production scale [4] Policy Environment - The policy landscape is becoming increasingly favorable for the automotive industry, with initiatives aimed at promoting smart and connected vehicles, including the approval of L3 autonomous driving models [4][53] Supply Side Dynamics - Automakers are accelerating the rollout of intelligent driving features, transitioning from high-end options to standard offerings across various price segments, thereby meeting consumer preferences for smart technology [4][68][73]