卓胜微：光通信、卫星通讯、高端射频积极储备-20260123

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a transformation to a Fab-Lite model, which is expected to pressure short-term performance. For 2025, the company anticipates revenue of approximately 3.72 to 3.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of about 16% to 18%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between -295 million and -255 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 163.46% to 173.41% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is actively preparing for growth in optical communication, satellite communication, and high-end RF sectors. Its SOI technology has evolved from a single product application to a comprehensive core technology platform covering all categories of RF front-end. The ongoing breakthroughs in the second-generation SOI process are expected to further solidify its position in the global RF chip market [2][3]. - The company has launched several high-performance, low-power mobile communication signal low-noise amplifier products based on germanium-silicon technology, which is crucial for efficient optoelectronic conversion in silicon photonics [2]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 3.72 billion, 4.20 billion, and 5.00 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -270 million, 250 million, and 502 million yuan for the same years [3][5]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 1.07 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.82 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected EPS for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is -0.50, 0.47, and 0.94 yuan per share [5]. Relative Valuation - The company is recognized as one of the leading players in the RF front-end sector within the domestic integrated circuit industry, adopting a Fab-Lite operational model. It offers a comprehensive range of products across various materials and processes, allowing flexibility in meeting market and customer demands [8]. - The average PB ratio for comparable companies in 2026 is expected to be 5.82x, while the company’s projected PB ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.18, 4.13, and 4.03, respectively [8][9].