COSCO SHIPPING Energy(SH:600026) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-24 00:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the oil shipping industry has experienced continuous growth over the past four years, with expectations for the company's profits to reach new highs by 2025 and a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 [3] - The report emphasizes that the oil shipping market is likely to continue its upward trend, driven by robust demand elasticity in foreign trade oil shipping [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million RMB): - 2023A: 22,733 - 2024A: 23,244 - 2025E: 30,650 - 2026E: 40,995 - 2027E: 43,693 - Year-on-year growth rates: 21.8%, 2.2%, 31.9%, 33.8%, 6.6% [5] - Net profit projections (in million RMB): - 2023A: 3,381 - 2024A: 4,037 - 2025E: 4,516 - 2026E: 6,619 - 2027E: 7,002 - Year-on-year growth rates: 132.1%, 19.4%, 11.9%, 46.6%, 5.8% [5] - The report maintains a target price of 20.26 HKD for 2026, based on a 15x PE ratio [9] Industry Insights - The report outlines a two-phase logic for the oil shipping market: 1. The first phase is driven by trade restructuring, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has significantly increased average shipping distances and demand [9] 2. The second phase involves a global increase in oil production starting April 2025, which is expected to further boost oil shipping demand [9] - The report anticipates a significant rise in oil shipping rates in the second half of 2025, with expectations for the highest global tanker profits in a decade [9] - The company operates 53 VLCCs, with a strong profit elasticity in foreign trade oil shipping, indicating that a $10,000 increase in VLCC TCE could lead to an approximate net profit increase of 1 billion RMB [9]