策略周报：牛市中期放量后的风格变化-20260125

Core Insights - The report indicates that since mid-January, the market's growth rate has slowed due to policy cooling signals, outflows of counter-cyclical funds, and a deceleration in the inflow of leveraged funds. The turnover rate of the entire A-share market peaked at 3.78% on January 14, followed by a decline from that high [2][8] - Historical instances of high turnover rates during bull markets have shown two patterns: style switching, where leading sectors weaken, and style diffusion, where strong sectors continue to perform well and expand into other thriving sectors. The report suggests that if the previous leading sectors were based on themes or policy speculation, they are likely to revert to stronger industrial trends after a high turnover rate [2][8] - The report identifies sectors with strong industrial trends and performance certainty, such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals, as likely to maintain strong performance post-high turnover. Conversely, sectors driven mainly by thematic catalysts without clear fundamental improvements may face challenges [2][8] Market Changes - The report notes that since late December 2025, the spring market has accelerated due to the resolution of overseas liquidity disturbances and the influx of configuration funds, particularly in industries like AI and commercial aerospace. However, the sustainability of previously strong-performing sectors such as media, military industry, non-ferrous metals, and computers is questioned as the market enters the latter half of the spring rally [8][29] - The report highlights that the leading sectors during previous high turnover periods have included financials, consumer goods, and technology, with shifts observed in 2007, 2009, 2014, 2020, and 2025. For instance, in 2007, the leading sectors shifted from real estate and consumer to financials and resources, while in 2020, the focus moved from consumption to cyclical and new energy sectors [2][8][12] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and AI computing power are expected to continue their strong performance due to their solid industrial trends and earnings realization. Additionally, sectors benefiting from price increases, such as basic chemicals and new energy materials, are also highlighted as having potential for improvement [2][8][34] - The report suggests that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, is likely to show increasing elasticity as the market conditions improve. The potential for significant inflows from long-term funds, such as insurance and mutual funds, is also noted as a positive factor for the financial sector [34][36] - The report indicates that the consumer sector may see investment opportunities primarily in new consumption models and high-dividend attributes, particularly in service consumption areas that could benefit from policy catalysts and base effect reversals [34][36]