A 股趋势与风格定量观察：整体维持震荡乐观，注意大小盘风格切换

• The short-term timing model maintains an optimistic signal this week, supported by macro fundamentals, valuation caution, neutral sentiment, and optimistic liquidity[18][19][22] - The short-term timing strategy has achieved an annualized return of 16.78% since 2012, with an annualized excess return of 11.67%, and a maximum drawdown of 15.05%, significantly outperforming the benchmark strategy[20][21][24] - The growth-value rotation model suggests overweighting growth stocks this week, driven by favorable macro fundamentals, valuation metrics, and sentiment indicators. The model has delivered an annualized return of 13.34% since 2012, with an annualized excess return of 4.99%[30][31][33] - The small-cap and large-cap rotation model has shifted from favoring small caps to large caps this week. The model utilizes 11 effective rotation indicators, including financing buy balance changes and R007 rate trends. Since 2014, the strategy has consistently generated positive annual excess returns, with a 2026 year-to-date excess return of 1.43%[34][35][36] - The comprehensive signal smoothing for small-cap rotation achieved an annualized return of 20.85%, with an annualized excess return of 13.11%, and a maximum drawdown of 40.70%[36]