PDD(US:PDD) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-25 07:45Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025E: 114,810 million RMB - 2026E: 131,702 million RMB - 2027E: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, which is 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed model to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive moat in the market [31][42] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4,349 million RMB, 5,149 million RMB, and 5,888 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1,148 million RMB, 1,317 million RMB, and 1,561 million RMB [41][42] - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD [44][50]