Report Overview - Report Date: January 25, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Pigs: The Expected Peak Season Demand Will Materialize, and Supply Contradictions Emerge [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices oscillated and adjusted this week. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 27.35 yuan/kg (last week: 25.3 yuan/kg), the price of pigs in Henan was 13.28 yuan/kg (last week: 13.18 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,559 yuan/head (last week: 1,559 yuan/head). On the supply side, group enterprises resumed their planned slaughter volume, while farmers in the north and south still had a sentiment of holding back sales, and the willingness to slaughter increased. On the demand side, downstream slaughtering was in the red during the peak season, and the overall slaughter volume decreased. According to Zhuochuang Information data, the average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 124.5KG (last week: 124.58KG), a 0.06%环比 decrease [2]. - In the futures market, pig futures prices were weak. This week, the highest price of the LH2603 contract was 12,140 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,565 yuan/ton (last week: 11,980 yuan/ton). In terms of basis, the basis of the LH2603 contract was 1,715 yuan/ton (last week: 1,300 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (January 26 - February 1), pig spot prices will be weak. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and society has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has entered the market again, starting social inventory accumulation. However, with the price increase driven by the supply side, the peak season for downstream pork has been lackluster, and the slaughtering end has been in the red, with the peak - season slaughter volume showing a counter - seasonal decline. It is difficult to expect a strong incremental demand during the peak season as before. From the supply perspective, according to piglet data, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. However, the market expectation is strong, leading to multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment. Secondary fattening entered the market in October, the overall supply progress was slow in November, the weight did not show a significant decline in December, and inventory accumulation occurred again in mid - and early January, so the pressure of existing supply has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the Spring Festival is late this year, and the previous demand performance exceeded that of the same period last year. The market has a strong expectation for the peak season before the Spring Festival, driving speculative demand to be advanced in January. However, around January 20, the slaughter volume decreased during the peak season, and the negative feedback of downstream losses emerged, which may limit the incremental demand during the peak season. In general, it was confirmed in mid - and early January that group enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, the weight - reduction plan was postponed, the feed data year - on - year remained at a historical high, and secondary fattening was actively entering the market, indicating that the social side has not released the pressure, waiting for the stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand [3]. - For the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11,565 yuan/ton on January 23. Currently, the slaughter progress of enterprises is still slow, the weight is increasing, secondary fattening has entered the market on the social side, inventory has been accumulated against the trend during the pre - festival peak season, downstream losses during the peak season, and the negative feedback has suppressed the incremental slaughter volume. The upward pressure on spot prices is obvious. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The expected incremental demand during the Laba Festival has materialized, and the supply contradiction has entered the release stage. Pay attention to the pre - festival selling - off market when group enterprises and the social side resonate, and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (January 19 - January 25) - Spot Market: Pig prices oscillated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan increased from 25.3 yuan/kg last week to 27.35 yuan/kg, the price of pigs in Henan rose from 13.18 yuan/kg last week to 13.28 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,559 yuan/head. On the supply side, group enterprises resumed planned slaughter volume, and farmers' willingness to slaughter increased. On the demand side, downstream slaughtering was in the red, and the overall slaughter volume decreased. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.5KG, a 0.06%环比 decrease from last week [2]. - Futures Market: Pig futures prices were weak. The highest price of the LH2603 contract was 12,140 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,565 yuan/ton (last week: 11,980 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 1,715 yuan/ton (last week: 1,300 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Market Outlook (January 26 - February 1) - Spot Market: Pig spot prices will be weak. Supply pressure has not been effectively released, and the negative feedback of downstream losses may limit the incremental demand during the peak season. Wait for the stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand [3] - Futures Market: Pay attention to the pre - festival selling - off market when group enterprises and the social side resonate. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Market Data - Basis and Spread: This week's basis was 1,715 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 285 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: This week's average weight was 124.5KG (last week: 124.58KG). In November, pork production was 5.46 million tons, a 2.6%环比 decrease; in December, pork imports were 53,600 tons, a 7.23%环比 decrease [11]
生猪：旺季需求预期将落地，供应矛盾显现