JIANGXI GUOKE DEFENCE GROUP CO.(SH:688543) Changjiang Securities·2026-01-26 02:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aerospace and defense industry [4] Core Insights - The domestic commercial aircraft market in China is projected to reach approximately 10 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with an expected demand of over 400 aircraft per year by 2029 [15][18] - The C919 aircraft family has expanded with the introduction of the C919-600 highland variant, which is designed for high-altitude operations, marking a significant step in China's civil aviation equipment development [14] - The report highlights the trend towards self-sufficiency in domestic commercial aircraft engines, indicating a potential to break the existing monopoly in the market [41] Summary by Sections Section 1: C919 Aircraft Development - The C919-600 highland variant has been publicly unveiled, designed specifically for high-altitude routes, enhancing adaptability for challenging environments [14] - The C919 family now includes basic, extended, and highland variants, with a steady progression towards a comprehensive product matrix [14] Section 2: Market Demand and Projections - The domestic commercial aircraft market is expected to be 2.5 times larger than the current military aircraft market, with a forecasted demand of 9,856 aircraft and a market size of 103.53 billion yuan over the next 20 years [15][17] - By 2029, the demand for new commercial aircraft in China's civil aviation fleet is projected to exceed 400 units annually, with specific annual requirements outlined for the years 2025 to 2029 [18][19] Section 3: Engine Market Dynamics - The global commercial aircraft engine market is anticipated to exceed 13 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with China's market expected to surpass 2.9 trillion yuan [43][45] - The report indicates a significant mismatch in supply and demand for commercial aircraft engines globally, with a strong push for domestic development of aviation power systems [52][59] Section 4: Commercial Aerospace Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status has changed to "under inquiry," indicating a rapid acceleration in the commercial space sector [71] - The report outlines plans for multiple rocket launches in 2026, with a focus on both near-Earth and deep-space exploration, highlighting the increasing activity in China's commercial space industry [77][86] Section 5: Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Capabilities - The report notes that domestic satellite manufacturing capacity is robust, with several companies capable of producing hundreds of satellites annually, which is expected to drive down costs [99][100] - The establishment of new liquid rocket launch facilities at the Hainan commercial launch site is set to enhance China's capabilities in commercial space launches [108]