Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-01-26 09:10Report Title - Title: "补库偏谨慎，盘面弱势震荡 双焦周报 20260126" [1] - Author: Zhou Guisheng [1] - Qualification: F3036194 (从业资格证), Z0015986 (投资咨询证) [1] Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal market saw both supply and demand increase. Affected by the news of the closure of the Mongolian coal port during the Spring Festival, there was a certain rebound. After the New Year's Day, coal mines resumed normal production, and domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily average iron - making water output increased slightly, but a sudden accident at a steel mill led to safety inspections affecting part of the iron - making water output. Coke production remained stable for the time being, and coking and steel plants still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Overall, domestic coal mine operations are gradually picking up, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply is gradually increasing, while downstream coking and steel enterprises are not making good profits, and their willingness to accept coking coal price increases is decreasing. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, most coking enterprises currently maintain normal production, coke production remains stable, and steel mill coke production has increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption is still in the off - season, steel mill profits are declining, and since steel mill coke inventories are at medium - to - high levels, they mainly replenish inventory according to demand. Overall, the current coke market has both supply and demand increasing, the inventory level is relatively reasonable, market competition has intensified, and it is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain low - level shocks. Attention should be paid to the winter storage and inventory replenishment demand [4]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Views Coking Coal Supply - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.33% (+0.86%), the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.01 tons (+0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 37.41% (+0.62%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.63 tons (+0.28). The operating rate of mines and the daily average output of mine clean coal continued to rise month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal - washing plants also continued to rise month - on - month. In terms of imported coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level last week, and overall supply gradually increased [3]. Coking Coal Demand - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel plants were 12.88 days (-0.03), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 14.97 days (+0.62). The blast furnace operating rate of steel plants decreased slightly, the daily average output of molten iron increased slightly month - on - month, the available days of coking coal in steel plants decreased slightly, and the available days of coking coal in coking plants increased. There is a certain demand for inventory replenishment in the downstream [3]. Coking Coal Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 274.35 tons (+1.98), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1177.71 tons (+44.86), the inventory of steel plants was 803.24 tons (+1.04), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 323.23 tons (-1.89), and the inventory of main ports was 289.38 tons (-9.52). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines, coking plants, and steel plants have accumulated slightly, while those of coal - washing plants and ports have decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [3]. Coke Supply - The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton (-1). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.41% (-0.14%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.31 tons (-0.14). The daily output of coke from 247 steel plants was 46.9 tons (+0.18). The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants decreased slightly in losses, and steel plants' resistance to the first round of coke price increases increased, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable, mainly because some coking enterprises had smooth shipments, inventory decreased, and production enthusiasm increased [4]. Coke Demand - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel plants were 12.35 days (+0.38). The daily average output of molten iron increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory usage cycle of steel plant coke increased, and steel plants mainly purchased coke according to demand [4]. Coke Inventory - The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 81.45 tons (-0.36), the inventory of main ports was 196.06 tons (+7.99), and the inventory of 247 steel plants was 661.46 tons (+11.31). The inventory of coking plants decreased slightly, the inventories of steel plants and ports increased slightly, and the overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. Part Two: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - and medium - sized cities' weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no analysis is provided in the text [6][10][14][18] Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report tracks various data related to coking coal, including purchase prices, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, production, operating rates, inventories, and customs clearance vehicle numbers at ports, but no analysis is provided in the text [21][26][31][35][37][39][42][45][51][54] Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report tracks various data related to coke, including factory prices, spot price adjustment schedules, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, profit per ton, production, capacity utilization rates, inventories, and inventory available days, but no analysis is provided in the text [59][61][63][67][73][76][78][83][88]