蜜雪集团（02097）：首次覆盖报告：现制饮品国民品牌，高质平价、全球扩张

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Mixue Group [5][10]. Core Insights - Mixue Group is positioned as a leading domestic fresh beverage brand, emphasizing high quality at affordable prices, with a competitive edge in supply chain management and scale effects [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues of RMB 33.75 billion, RMB 38.06 billion, and RMB 42.39 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 36%, 13%, and 11% respectively [10][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 5.93 billion, RMB 6.78 billion, and RMB 7.54 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 14%, and 11% [10][16]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB): - 2023: 20,302 - 2024: 24,829 - 2025E: 33,748 - 2026E: 38,059 - 2027E: 42,393 - Net profit (in million RMB): - 2023: 3,137 - 2024: 4,437 - 2025E: 5,934 - 2026E: 6,779 - 2027E: 7,535 - Projected PE ratios: - 2025E: 24.51 - 2026E: 21.45 - 2027E: 19.30 [4][10][16]. Business Model and Competitive Advantages - Mixue Group operates under a franchise model with a focus on high-density store networks, which enhances consumer reach and operational efficiency [10][22]. - The company has established a robust supply chain with high self-sourcing rates, allowing for cost advantages and quality control [10][22]. - The brand has a strong market presence in the affordable beverage segment, with Mixue Ice City leading in market share [10][22]. Market Expansion Potential - The domestic market for fresh beverages is projected to grow significantly, with an increase in consumer demand for fresh and diverse flavors [10][22]. - Mixue Group has identified potential for opening 60,000 to 70,000 stores domestically and over 40,000 stores internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia [10][22][14]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings by entering the fresh beer market through the acquisition of the brand "Fulu Family" [10][22]. Valuation - The target price for Mixue Group is set at HKD 549.47, based on a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately HKD 208.8 billion [10][20][21].