谈债市策略的嬗变与应对：丛林法则，零和博弈

Core Insights - The report addresses three main issues: recent bond market review, changes in institutional behavior, and future outlook for the bond market [2] - The bond market is undergoing a transformation characterized by a dual behavior of institutions [3] Group 1: Institutional Behavior Changes - The supply side pressure is evident with local government bond issuance expected to reach 1.94 trillion yuan in Q1 2026, with high issuance volumes in January and March [5] - The demand side shows a deterioration in traditional allocation demand, with major banks and insurance companies showing decreased willingness to absorb long-term bonds [5] - The trading side indicates a shift where rural commercial banks are retreating while brokerages are becoming more active, particularly in trading 10Y and 30Y bonds [16][17] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The issuance plan for government bonds in Q1 2026 is heavily concentrated in February and March, with various maturities being offered [6] - The report highlights that large banks are focusing on realizing profits from older bonds, while insurance institutions are primarily buying local bonds instead of national bonds [7] - The trading volume remains low, and the volatility is expected to decrease further as banks increase their trading in 10Y bonds [23] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bond market may experience further adjustments, with brokerages likely to increase their trading of long-term bonds [13] - There is a notable pressure for profit-taking among joint-stock banks, particularly in 10Y national bonds, which may influence future trading strategies [14] - The report anticipates that the yield spread between 30Y and 10Y bonds may widen, while the spread between 10Y national bonds and national development bonds may narrow [23]