YUEXIU PROPERTY(HK:00123) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-26 15:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 50 million to 100 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 90% to 95%. Core net profit is projected to be between 250 million and 350 million RMB, down about 80% to 85% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to the ongoing industry adjustment phase, which has led to a decrease in gross profit margins from property sales and a temporary change in the structure of projects being recognized [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company remains among the top ten in sales scale, achieving a sales amount of 106.2 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, and ranking 9th in the industry. The sales area also saw a decline of 24.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company focuses on acquiring land in core cities, successfully obtaining 23 plots of quality land in 2025, with over 90% of the land acquisition amount concentrated in six key cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [3]. - Financially, the company maintains a safe and stable position, with operating cash flow exceeding 10 billion RMB for four consecutive years since 2022, and year-end cash reserves surpassing 40 billion RMB. The company remains in the green zone for the "three red lines" policy, continuously optimizing its debt structure and reducing financing costs [4]. Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a projected revenue of 88.645 billion RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 74 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 92.9% [5][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.02 RMB for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 206 [5][11]. - The company is expected to recover in subsequent years, with net profits projected to rise to 764 million RMB in 2026 and 1.133 billion RMB in 2027, representing growth rates of 931.0% and 48.3%, respectively [10].