汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉FSD及robotaxi更新：智能化拐点已至

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The transition to a subscription model for Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is seen as a significant shift, with the potential for increased penetration rates and confidence in the business model [2][4]. - The introduction of real-time mileage insurance discounts by Lemonade for FSD users highlights the recognized safety benefits of FSD compared to human drivers, which could further enhance the commercial viability of the FSD subscription model [3][4]. - The testing of Robotaxi without safety drivers in Austin marks a pivotal moment for the industry, with expectations for increased deployment throughout the year [5][6]. - The potential approval of FSD in Europe and China is viewed optimistically, with implications for broader market acceptance and growth in 2026 [7][12]. Summary by Sections Event 1: FSD Subscription Model - Tesla has shifted to a subscription-only model for FSD, with a current penetration rate of approximately 22% in the U.S. This is expected to rise significantly following the cancellation of the buyout option and the end of free trials [2]. - The anticipated price increase for FSD subscriptions reflects a shift in strategy, moving away from price reductions to enhance penetration [2]. Event 2: Insurance Model - Lemonade's new car insurance policy offers a 50% discount on premiums when FSD is activated, indicating a recognition of FSD's safety advantages [3][4]. - The average accident rate for FSD is reported to be significantly lower than the national average, further supporting the case for its adoption [4]. Event 3: Robotaxi Testing - The initial testing of Robotaxi without safety drivers is underway, although most vehicles still have safety drivers. This is seen as a starting point for future developments in autonomous driving [5][6]. Event 4: Regulatory Approvals - Optimism surrounds the potential approval of FSD in Europe, with a possibility of broader EU acceptance based on mutual recognition mechanisms [7][12]. - Caution is advised regarding the timeline for FSD approval in China, with the market currently showing limited sensitivity to this development [12].