格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global political order has entered a dark period of the law of the jungle, causing great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The global economy has passed its peak and started to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economy - The New York Fed's rare inquiry about the yen exchange rate may lead to a "Plaza Accord 2.0", and the Japanese market is experiencing a policy - driven reset before the election [1] - SoftBank's "Stargate" AI infrastructure plan has suffered a major setback, highlighting the challenges of valuation and regulation in its hardware expansion [1] - US consumers will receive about $350 billion in tax refunds in Q1 2026, a 20% year - on - year increase, which will boost consumption in the short term but have limited impact on economic growth [1] - Europe is accelerating the reconstruction of its military industry to reduce dependence on the United States, and it needs to invest about $1 trillion to fully replace US military power [1] - British companies are laying off employees at the fastest rate since 2020, and the unemployment rate has reached a nearly five - year high [1] - The NAND market is expected to have an annual growth rate of 34% in the next three years, and the price will soar by 40% in 2026 [1] - The US is taking actions such as seizing Venezuela's oil and trying to buy Greenland, which disrupts the global political order [2] - The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell, and the uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026 [2] - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and buy $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US will adjust its economic relations with China and revive its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer K - type differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families are tightening their belts [2] - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is estimated to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% - 37%, indicating the continued boom of AI [2] - SpaceX hopes to achieve full reusability of rockets this year, which will reduce the cost of space access by 100 times [2]