Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for CR Beverage with a target price of HK$11.87, reflecting an 8% decrease from the previous target price of HK$12.85 [1][3]. Core Insights - The forecast for CR Beverage's FY25E net profit is a decline of 35.5% to RMB1.06 billion, with a more significant drop expected in the second half of FY25E due to large marketing contracts and increased supply chain investments [1]. - The company is expected to experience pressure release in 2025, with better growth anticipated during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, potentially starting as early as 2026 [1][9]. - Key positive developments include the appointment of a new Chairman with extensive experience expected to drive significant reforms, particularly in sales [1][9]. - The company is considering increasing its dividend payout ratio in light of weaker performance in 2025 [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY25E is projected at RMB11.46 billion, a decrease of 15.2% year-on-year, with a recovery expected in FY26E with 8.3% growth [2][10]. - Net profit for FY25E is expected to be RMB1.06 billion, down from RMB1.64 billion in FY24A, with a recovery to RMB1.29 billion in FY26E [2][10]. - The company's P/E ratio for FY25E is projected at 17.9x, with a decrease in net profit margin to 9.2% [2][10]. Market Position and Share Performance - CR Beverage's market capitalization is approximately HK$24.46 billion, with a current share price of HK$10.20, indicating a potential upside of 16.4% to the target price [3][4]. - The company's packaged water market share has stabilized, showing slight growth at the end of Q3 [9]. - The share performance over the past six months has seen a decline of 21.5% [6].
华润饮料：Leave the worst behind in 2025-20260127