海大集团：国内价值属性增强，海外持续高成长-20260128

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Da Group, with a target price of 69.10 RMB [5][4]. Core Views - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio for 2025-2027 from 30% to 50% and has submitted an application for the spin-off of its overseas business for listing in Hong Kong. The current market undervalues the domestic dividend potential and overseas growth opportunities of Hai Da Group [1][5]. - The domestic feed business is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 20% increase in sales volume by 2025, outpacing the industry growth rate of approximately 6%. The company's market share is anticipated to accelerate, supported by resilient profit margins [2][3]. - The overseas feed business is on a clear growth trajectory, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 35% from 2022 to 2025. The company plans to enhance its production capacity in key strategic regions, aiming for a total overseas feed capacity of approximately 890,000 tons by 2028 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Business - The domestic feed business is expected to achieve a sales volume of 44.3 million tons by 2030, with a strong competitive edge and stable profit margins. The company has shown resilience in maintaining its profit per ton, with only a minor decrease compared to industry peers [2][3]. - The company’s net debt ratio has significantly decreased to 8.5% as of Q3 2025, indicating improved financial health and the potential for increased free cash flow, which supports the higher dividend payout [2][3]. Overseas Business - The global feed market is projected to reach 1.396 billion tons by 2024, with significant growth expected in regions such as Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. The company has established a strong presence in Vietnam and is expanding its operations in other strategic markets [3][4]. - The spin-off of the overseas business is expected to streamline management and incentivize growth, with plans to increase production capacity by 3 million tons in key regions by 2028 [3][4]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 44.93 billion, 48.33 billion, and 68.0 billion RMB, reflecting a downward adjustment due to changes in pig prices. The target price is based on a price-to-book ratio of 23.8x for 2026, considering the company's competitive advantages and growth potential [4][5].