Tesla(US:TSLA) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-28 11:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the automotive sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Geely, Xpeng, and BYD for passenger vehicles, and recommending attention to Jianghuai Automobile [3][5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a transformation with the integration of smart technology and electric vehicles, driven by policies supporting vehicle replacement and upgrades. The report emphasizes the importance of the "old-for-new" policy in stimulating demand [15][18]. - Tesla plans to sell humanoid robots to the public by 2027, which is expected to catalyze growth in the robotics sector. The report suggests that the production progress and technological advancements of Tesla will be key focal points [13][22]. - The collaboration between Changan Automobile and Midea Group aims to enhance the "smart home" ecosystem, allowing users to control home appliances via their vehicles, which is expected to improve user experience and operational efficiency [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is set to continue, stimulating demand for passenger vehicles. The new subsidy structure will provide 12% of the vehicle price for electric vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum caps of 20,000 and 15,000 yuan respectively [16][17]. - The report anticipates that the new subsidy policy will improve the structure of subsidized vehicles, encouraging higher-end vehicle replacements and reducing price competition [18][19]. 2. Smart Electric Vehicles - The report highlights the accelerating growth of smart electric vehicles, with a focus on the integration of advanced driving technologies. Companies like BYD are expected to lead in this sector, with significant growth projected in the high-end market [19][21]. - The report notes that the automotive parts sector is poised for growth, particularly in the context of globalization and the expansion of new energy vehicle production [19][21]. 3. Robotics - The report indicates that the robotics sector is entering a new era with major players like Tesla and domestic companies preparing for IPOs. The focus is on the development of humanoid robots and their integration into various industries [22][23]. - Key hardware components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials are expected to see significant advancements, which will drive the robotics market forward [22][23]. 4. Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from the continuation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which will encourage the replacement of older, polluting vehicles with newer models [34][35]. - The report suggests that the demand for heavy trucks will remain strong due to supportive policies and the increasing penetration of natural gas vehicles [34][35]. 5. Tires - The tire industry is projected to grow due to high demand and low valuations. The report emphasizes the importance of smart manufacturing capabilities and the global expansion of Chinese tire manufacturers [36][37]. - The report notes that the production rates for passenger car tires remain high, indicating robust demand in both domestic and international markets [37].