华图山鼎:超预期高增长验证有效转型,未来增长逻辑清晰-20260128

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2025, with net profit projected to be between 280 million and 420 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 428.38% to 692.57% [9] - The core driver of this growth is the non-degree training business, which benefits from strong demand for examination training, regional operational reforms, and technological upgrades that enhance profitability [9] - The company is strategically transforming into vocational education, focusing on civil service and healthcare examination training, which is expected to lead to geometric growth in its non-degree examination training business [9] - The company has established a strong market position and is becoming an industry leader, supported by strategic partnerships and a robust offline network [9] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.78 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1046.3%, 17.5%, 25.0%, and 15.0% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 53 million yuan in 2024 to 520 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 157.6%, 483.8%, 22.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 yuan in 2024 to 2.64 yuan in 2027 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned in the civil service examination market, which is experiencing increased demand as the number of applicants surpasses that for graduate school entrance exams [9] - The strategic focus on high-quality teaching and service, along with the development of new business areas, is expected to enhance the company's growth potential [9] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework with a leading online education provider, leveraging AI technology to improve profitability [9]