上海家化（600315）：改革成效显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.34 [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 240 to 290 million in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year. 2025 is viewed as a critical year for the company's strategic reform, focusing on core brands, brand building, online presence, and efficiency [1][6]. - The company has successfully developed three major products that have generated over RMB 100 million in sales each, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy combining category breakthroughs, major product cultivation, and marketing innovation [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting revenues of RMB 6.407 billion, RMB 7.379 billion, and RMB 8.219 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 12.84%, 15.16%, and 11.38% [10]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to have a net profit of RMB 273.22 million in 2025, with an expected EPS of RMB 0.41. This is a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 833.09 million in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -12.45% in 2024 to 3.93% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from -17.32 in 2024 to 52.80 in 2025, reflecting a shift towards profitability [5][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at RMB 21.46 as of January 28, with a market capitalization of RMB 14.426 billion. The stock has traded within a range of RMB 15.60 to RMB 28.92 over the past 52 weeks [2]. - The company has seen significant growth in its online sales channels, with notable performances on platforms like Douyin and Taobao, indicating strong brand momentum [7][9].