鸣鸣很忙（01768）：万店规模夯实龙头地位，效率革命重塑量贩业态

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][88]. Core Insights - The leisure food and beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid expansion, with a projected GMV growth from 2.9 trillion yuan to 3.7 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 5.5% [3][10]. - The company, "鸣鸣很忙," is positioned as the leading group in the mass retail sector, with revenue expected to exceed 39.3 billion yuan by 2024, showcasing strong growth potential [3][29]. - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the snack market is diversifying and showing significant growth [3][64]. Summary by Sections Industry Expansion - The leisure food and beverage sector is projected to grow significantly, with the down-market segment being a key driver, increasing from 1.7 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan (CAGR 6.5%) [3][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards specialized retail channels, with the growth of specialty stores and e-commerce, reflecting changing consumer preferences [10][11]. Company Overview - "鸣鸣很忙" is consolidating its position as the first mass retail group through brand mergers, with a revenue forecast of 39.3 billion yuan by 2024 [3][29]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in store count, reaching 19,517 stores by the third quarter of 2025, with a focus on lower-tier cities [3][41]. Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 63.06 billion yuan in 2025 to 89.93 billion yuan in 2027, with adjusted net profit projected to rise from 2.52 billion yuan to 4.68 billion yuan during the same period [3][88]. - The company is expected to achieve a stable gross margin of 9.73% by 2025, driven by operational efficiencies and a digital marketing strategy [3][29]. International Expansion - The Southeast Asian snack market is projected to reach 12.3 billion USD by 2024, with a notable demand for health-oriented snacks [3][64]. - The company is leveraging its supply chain advantages to penetrate markets in Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam, where local consumer preferences are evolving [3][67].