国电电力（600795）：单季表现边际转弱，全年经营仍展望积极

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company's electricity generation for Q4 2025 reached 1,122.50 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.92%. However, the average on-grid electricity price decreased to 0.414 yuan/kWh, down by 0.021 yuan/kWh compared to the previous year. The significant increase in installed capacity supported stable growth in electricity generation, but the decline in electricity prices may limit revenue growth in Q4. Overall, the company's operational performance for the entire year remains positive due to continuous improvement in the first three quarters [2][6][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Electricity Generation and Pricing - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 1,122.50 billion kWh, up 4.92% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price was 0.414 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.021 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The total electricity generation for 2025 was 4,674.65 billion kWh, reflecting a 1.74% increase year-on-year, with an average on-grid price of 400.66 yuan/MWh [2][6] Operational Performance - The company added 764.4 MW of thermal power capacity in 2025, with 298 MW added in Q4. The thermal power generation in Q4 was 924.63 billion kWh, a 6.98% increase year-on-year. Hydropower generation decreased by 18.49% year-on-year to 97.80 billion kWh due to lower water inflow. Wind power generation increased by 2.81% to 55.52 billion kWh, while solar power generation surged by 41.25% to 44.55 billion kWh [13][6] Cost and Profitability - The coal price in Q4 showed a slight recovery but remained lower year-on-year, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 765.44 yuan/ton, down 57.15 yuan/ton year-on-year. The overall cost structure is expected to improve, but the rising coal prices may pressure profitability in Q4. Despite this, the company's operational performance for the year is still projected to be positive due to improvements in the first three quarters [13][6] Future Growth and Dividends - The company is set to begin operations at the Dadu River hydropower stations, which have a total capacity of 3.52 million kW, enhancing growth certainty. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.02% based on expected 2025 earnings [13][6]