Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Guoyuan Securities·2026-01-30 00:25Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) [1] Core Insights - Muyuan Foods is the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with a comprehensive business model covering breeding, farming, feed production, and slaughtering [2] - The company has maintained the highest pig output globally for four consecutive years, with a market share of 5.6% in 2024, surpassing the combined market share of its next three competitors [2] - The Chinese pig farming industry is undergoing consolidation, with the penetration rate of large-scale farming increasing from 43.3% in 2015 to an expected 70.1% in 2024 [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023, 2024, and Q1-Q3 of 2025 is projected at 110.861 billion, 137.947 billion, and 111.790 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.06%, +24.65%, and +15.71% [4] - Net profit is expected to be -4.263 billion, 17.881 billion, and 14.779 billion CNY for the same periods, with year-on-year changes of -132.14%, +519.42%, and +41.01% [4] - The company's performance is significantly influenced by pig prices, which are currently under pressure due to a surplus in supply and weak demand [4] Market Context - The pig market in China experiences cyclical price fluctuations driven by supply-demand dynamics, policy interventions, and feed cost variations [3] - The report indicates that the current H-share offering price corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 11.19 for 2024, slightly lower than the A-share valuation of 11.74 [4]