CSCEC(SH:601668) Changjiang Securities·2026-01-30 04:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The recent performance of the company has been weak, with valuations dropping to the bottom range. At this point, the company is considered to have a sufficient margin of safety and highlighted dividend value, leading to a continued strong recommendation for investment in the company [5][7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 1,558.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.182 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year. It is expected that the company will continue to face slight pressure throughout the year [7]. - The total new contracts signed for 2025 are projected to be 4,545.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The new contracts in the construction industry are expected to reach 4,151.0 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [7]. - The company is a pilot unit for the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's market value management assessment, consistently leading in dividend payout rates among central state-owned enterprises. Despite a projected decline in net profit for 2024, the company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 21% to 24%, maintaining a stable dividend per share of 0.27 yuan, which corresponds to a current dividend yield of 5.4% [7]. Market Position - The company is the largest construction enterprise in China by scale and market capitalization, and it is a component of major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend [12]. - The company's valuation has dropped to historical lows, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.43 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 4.7, both below the historical 25th percentile, indicating a strong margin of safety [12]. - The company’s subsidiaries, including China Overseas Property, have a combined sales volume that exceeds that of the leading competitor, Poly Developments, positioning the company to benefit from real estate policy changes [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending and policy support in 2026, which is seen as a pivotal year for the "14th Five-Year Plan." The central economic work conference has emphasized stabilizing investment as a key task for 2026, with expectations for infrastructure demand to rise due to increased fiscal spending on major projects [12].