微软：Results beat; long-term structural growth story remains unchanged-20260130

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Microsoft, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported 2QFY26 results with revenue of US$81.3 billion, reflecting a 16.7% year-over-year growth, which is 1.5% better than both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Operating income increased by 20.9% year-over-year to US$38.3 billion, exceeding forecasts, driven by strong performance in the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) segments [1]. - The target price has been revised down by 3% to US$614.6, translating into a price-to-earnings ratio of 35x for FY26E and 31x for FY27E [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the Intelligent Cloud segment was 28.8% year-over-year, contributing US$32.9 billion, which accounted for 40.5% of total revenue [7]. - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, aligning with consensus expectations [7]. - The Productivity and Business Processes segment generated US$34.1 billion in revenue, up 15.9% year-over-year, representing 42.0% of total revenue [7]. Capital Expenditure and Outlook - Capital expenditures, including financial leases, reached US$37.5 billion for 2QFY26, up 66% year-over-year, with a significant portion allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs [7]. - Management anticipates a decrease in capital expenditures in 3QFY26 due to normal variability in cloud infrastructure buildouts [7]. Earnings Summary - For FY26E, revenue is projected at US$327.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 16.3% [8]. - Net profit is expected to reach US$129.5 billion, reflecting a 27.1% year-over-year increase [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY26E is estimated at US$17.41, with a P/E ratio of 27.7x [8]. Share Performance and Market Data - The current market capitalization of Microsoft is approximately US$3.59 trillion, with an average turnover of US$12.08 billion over the last three months [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of US$542.07 and a low of US$354.56 [3].