KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2026-01-30 08:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [48]. Core Insights - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 2.31% from January 16 to January 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.26 percentage points [10][11]. - Approximately 61% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Guyue Longshan (+17.73%) and Zhongxin Niya (+16.55%) [14]. - The industry valuation is currently at a PE (TTM) of approximately 20.94 times, which is below the five-year average of 31 times [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 2.31% from January 16 to January 29, ranking tenth among the Shenwan first-level industries [10]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the other liquor sector seeing the highest increase of 6.85% [11]. - About 61% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant increases from stocks like Guyue Longshan and Zhongxin Niya [14]. Industry Data Tracking Liquor Sector - The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1580 RMB per bottle, up 60 RMB from January 15, while the price of Guojiao 1573 rose to 850 RMB per bottle [20]. Seasoning Sector - The price of soybeans was 4188.20 RMB per ton, down 2.35% month-on-month, while the price of white sugar decreased to 5320.00 RMB per ton [23]. Beer Sector - The average price of barley was 2210.00 RMB per ton, up 5.00 RMB from January 15, and aluminum ingot prices rose to 24810.00 RMB per ton, an increase of 590.00 RMB [28]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk was 3.04 RMB per kilogram, a slight increase from the previous period [34]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 18.60 RMB per kilogram, up 0.60 RMB from January 15 [36]. Industry News - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol grew by 2.7% in 2025, totaling 642.5 billion RMB [38]. - The beer import volume decreased by 9.2% in 2025, while exports increased by 14.4% [39]. - The average wholesale price index for national liquor decreased by 0.47% in mid-January [40]. - The revenue of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry fell by 4.4% in 2025 [41]. Weekly Industry Outlook - Market volatility is expected to increase in the short term, with a focus on the performance of demand during the Spring Festival [45]. - The report suggests monitoring high-end liquor stocks like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as other sectors benefiting from demographic policies [45][46].