ASML Holding(US:ASML) Huachuang Securities·2026-01-30 10:30Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for ASML Core Insights - ASML's Q4 2025 revenue reached €9.718 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 29.3% [3][9] - The company has a backlog of €38.8 billion in orders, with €25.5 billion attributed to EUV systems, representing 65% of the total backlog [4][26] - The demand outlook is significantly improved due to confidence in sustainable AI-related demand, driving customers to accelerate capacity planning and investment [28] Summary by Sections 1. ASML Q4 2025 and Full Year Performance - Q4 2025 revenue and profitability: Revenue of €9.718 billion, gross margin of 52.2%, and net profit of €2.84 billion [3][9] - Full year 2025 revenue was €32.667 billion, a 15.6% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 52.8% and net profit of €9.609 billion [11][14] 2. Business Segment Performance - System sales revenue for Q4 2025 was €7.584 billion, including €3.640 billion from EUV sales and €3.944 billion from non-EUV sales [12][15] - Full year system sales revenue was €24.474 billion, with EUV sales at €11.748 billion and non-EUV sales at €12.726 billion [13] 3. Order Situation - Backlog as of the end of 2025 was €38.8 billion, with net orders in Q4 2025 reaching €13.2 billion, of which €7.4 billion were EUV orders [4][29] - Full year net orders totaled €28 billion [29] 4. Shareholder Return Strategy - ASML repurchased approximately €1.7 billion in shares in Q4 2025, with a total repurchase amount of €7.6 billion under the 2022-2025 plan [27] 5. Industry Observation and Company Progress - The market outlook has improved significantly, driven by confidence in AI-related demand sustainability [28] - ASML has established a strategic partnership with MistralAI, investing €1.3 billion to accelerate AI-driven innovations [31] 6. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, ASML expects revenue between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, with a gross margin of 51-53% [32][35] - For the full year 2026, revenue is projected to be between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a growth rate of 4.0% to 19.3% [33][35] - Long-term revenue target for 2030 is set between €44 billion and €60 billion, with a gross margin target of 56% to 60% [36]