九号公司（689009）：2025 业绩预告点评：Q4 利润短期承压，轻装上阵 26 年可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][23]. Core Insights - The company has released its earnings forecast for 2025, indicating a net profit of 1.67 to 1.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.0% to 70.6%. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows a potential net profit of -0.12 to +0.06 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [2][13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the transition to new national standards for electric two-wheelers and maintain strong growth in its robotic lawn mower segment. The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.76 billion, 2.51 billion, and 3.31 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 24.4, 34.8, and 45.9 yuan [13][5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10.22 billion yuan in 2023 to 21.41 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 50.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 598 million yuan in 2023 to 1.76 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 62.4% [5]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is forecasted to decrease from 6.24 in 2023 to 2.12 in 2025, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [5]. Market Data - The target price for the stock is set at 73.10 yuan, with the current price at 51.76 yuan, suggesting a significant upside potential [6]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 3.734 billion yuan and a total share count of 72 million [7]. Business Performance - The company is experiencing a temporary profit pressure in Q4 2025 due to currency fluctuations, dividend tax provisions, and seasonal business variations. The expected net profit for Q4 is -0.27 billion yuan, a decline of 124% year-on-year [13]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is facing short-term challenges due to the new national standards, but sales are expected to recover in Q1 2026 [13]. - The robotic lawn mower segment is projected to maintain high growth, with the company accelerating its shipment pace in response to market demands [13].