煤焦周度观点-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coal and coke show a situation of weak supply and demand, with sentiment playing a dominant role. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of coal and coke is in a structural repair. There is an expected tightening of supply in the main coking coal production areas before the festival. Considering the upcoming coal mine shutdowns for the holiday, the upstream inventory is continuously being depleted, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. Additionally, as the downstream is in the restocking cycle, the rigid demand for procurement still provides some support for prices. Overseas countries are planning to include coking coal in strategic reserve key minerals, which may affect China's import volume and domestic - foreign price difference, but since the import window for seaborne coal has been closed since January, it will not have a major impact on the subsequent increment and the current stock market. Overall, coal and coke will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but attention should be paid to the resistance from the industrial spot - futures market in the future [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic supply: Some coal mines in the production areas have continued to increase their output, and coal mines that were previously affected by safety supervision and had production cuts have returned to normal. The sample coal mine raw coal output this week increased by 14.67 tons week - on - week to 1234.29 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.02% week - on - week to 85.87%. In terms of imports, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port has been running at a high level. From January 26th to 29th, the port was open for 4 days, with an average daily customs - cleared vehicle number of 1457, a week - on - week increase of 281 vehicles [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The first round of coke price increase was implemented last week, and it is expected to run stably after the increase. Coking plants generally have a conservative attitude, and their restocking of coking coal is almost complete, with a weak willingness to purchase at higher prices. This week, the national average daily pig iron output was 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons from last week, and the rigid demand for raw materials has weakened [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory at all levels increased by 35.3 tons week - on - week. It is still in the winter restocking cycle. The pit - mouth inventory decreased and was transferred to downstream coking and steel enterprises. The mine inventory decreased by 11.6 tons week - on - week, and the independent coking inventory increased by 57.1 tons week - on - week [5]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 881.80 (+10.01); FW clean coal 446.56 (+5.08) | Independent coking plant daily average 62.8 (-0.5); Steel mill and coking enterprise daily average 47.0 (+0.1) | | Demand | Pig iron output 227.98 (-0.12) | Pig iron output 227.98 (-0.12) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +35.3; Mine raw coal -0.93; Mine clean coal -13.86; Independent coking +57.1; Steel mill coking +11.1; Port -9.0; Port of entry +4.7 | MS total inventory +13.3; Independent coking +2.9; Steel mill +16.6; Port -6.2 | | Profit | Commodity coal 478 (-3) | Average coking enterprise profit -11 (-5) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1198 | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weekly: The 523 - sample mine raw coal and clean coal production data are presented, along with the 523 - sample mine start - up rate [10]. - Monthly: The monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal are presented [12]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance: The customs clearance volumes of Ganqimao, Mandula, and Ceke Ports are presented, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three ports [14][16][17][19]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the sample coal mine raw coal inventory decreased by 14.3 tons week - on - week to 186.42 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 3.43 tons week - on - week to 130.63 tons [24]. - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 289.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.52 tons [26]. - Coking plant: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises are presented, including regional and capacity - segmented data [29][31][33]. - Steel mill: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises are presented, including regional data [34]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises are presented, including data segmented by capacity and region [37][42]. - Output: The daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises is presented [44][46]. 3.4.2 Inventory - Coking plant: The inventory of independent coking enterprises is presented [48]. - Steel mill: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of steel enterprises are presented [49][52][53][55][57]. - Total sample: The total inventory of coke is presented [59]. 3.4.3 Demand - Pig iron: The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises is presented, along with the supply - demand difference of coke [61]. 3.4.4 Profit - The disk profit of coke per ton (main continuous contract) and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [64]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.5.1 Coking Coal Futures - The futures market quotations of coking coal 2605 and 2609 are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [68]. 3.5.2 Coke Futures - The futures market quotations of coke 2605 and 2609 are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [71]. 3.5.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [74][77]. 3.5.4 Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke are presented, including the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the ex - factory prices of different types of metallurgical coke [79]. 3.5.5 Coal and Coke Basis - The basis of coking coal and coke is presented, including the difference between the warehouse receipt and the futures price [81].