Tesla(US:TSLA) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-01 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla (TSLA.O) with a target price of $512 [7][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tesla's performance is driven by strong growth in its energy storage business, with Q4 2025 energy revenue reaching $3.837 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase. The automotive gross margin continues to recover, reaching 17.9% in Q4 2025 despite a decline in automotive revenue [3][11]. - The launch of Robotaxi operations without safety drivers has accelerated commercialization, with the Cybercab expected to start mass production in April. The Full Self-Driving (FSD) service has reached 1.1 million users, with a significant portion opting for one-time payments [3][11]. - The Optimus robot production is ramping up, with plans to release the Gen 3 prototype in the first half of 2026 and a significant increase in capital expenditures to $20 billion in 2026 to support AI chip investments and new production lines [3][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for FY2026E to FY2028E are $106.2 billion, $122.5 billion, and $141.3 billion, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are $7.8 billion, $10.6 billion, and $14.9 billion [5][11]. - The automotive business is expected to face pressure on sales, while the energy storage segment is anticipated to grow rapidly, contributing a larger share of revenue [11][12]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including operating income and adjusted PE ratios, indicating a recovery in profitability metrics over the forecast period [5][12].