短期调整，2月仍积极

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that since the launch of the spring market in mid-December 2025, the market has experienced two phases: from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026, there was a rapid inflow of leveraged funds and ETF purchases, leading to a significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.9% and a sharp increase in turnover rate. From January 13 to January 30, 2026, the market saw a correction due to policy guidance cooling down, with a large outflow from broad-based ETFs and a decline in the index by 1.14% [3][9][10] - The report identifies two internal reasons for the short-term adjustment: first, the market tends to experience fluctuations or corrections after rapid increases in turnover rates, as seen in previous bull markets. Second, the trading volume of certain sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, reached a high level, increasing internal adjustment pressure [4][10][14] - February is expected to continue the second half of the spring market, as it typically has the highest win rate during this period. Potential positive factors for incremental funds include increased allocation of equity assets by insurance funds, the maturity of fixed deposits, a rebound in public fund issuance, private fund replenishment, and foreign capital inflow [4][16][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that in February, small-cap growth stocks usually outperform, with a focus on themes rather than industries. High-elasticity growth themes, such as military and AI applications, may still perform well after a phase of profit-taking [4][16][24] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of mid-term logical directions in the industrial sector, indicating that after short-term valuation adjustments, there may be strong mid-term sustainability [4][16][24] - The report highlights that the current bull market is supported by a favorable liquidity environment, with potential for continued strong performance in the market, despite some expected volatility [21][24][25]