境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告-20260201

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Dow fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.17%. The nomination of Wash as the next Fed Chairman, tech giant earnings reports, and geopolitical risks are the three core factors driving the US stock market this week [6]. - In the short - term, under regulatory guidance, the slow - bull market with a "slower slope" is progressing steadily. Before the Spring Festival, market liquidity may be weak. It is recommended to focus on high - performance technology stocks and balance with low - level cyclical dividend - paying stocks. Next week, pay attention to the mapping opportunities of A - share hardware and Hong Kong stocks (Internet) when US tech giants release their earnings reports [13]. - In the medium - term, for Chinese stocks, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: technology assets with clear industrial trends supported by policies, some new energy sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous metals sector benefiting from tight supply, strong structural demand, and interest - rate cut catalysis [13]. - AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The current situation may be similar to that in 1997 from the perspective of the ROIC of the technology industry. It is necessary to dynamically track whether the "ROIC - WACC" of US tech giants and the index level shows a sharp convergence trend [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs US Stocks - This week, Microsoft's stock price dropped significantly. The gap between software companies represented by Microsoft/Oracle and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (hardware) has further widened. Nearly one - third of S&P 500 component stocks have disclosed their earnings reports, and the Q4 2025 earnings of US stock sectors are still strong [3]. - Next week, chip stocks AMD, Qualcomm, and Google and Amazon among the "Magnificent Seven" will release their earnings reports. The market will further assess the US economy and the rhythm of future interest - rate cuts through the upcoming US non - farm payroll data. The earnings performance of US tech giants next week is a key window for verifying the "AI bubble". In the short - term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of higher volatility in the US stock market next week. In the medium - term, the report is still optimistic about the investment opportunities in the US stock hardware sector [8]. - AI is a local bubble. Since November 2025, the AI narrative has shifted from rewarding Capex spending to worrying about "liability - like" CAPEX and low visibility of return on investment. The current market pricing is punishing "individual" companies with aggressive capital expenditures, not a systemic risk. The ROIC of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants has shown a downward inflection point in the past two quarters. It is necessary to track the divergence between "financing growth" and "profit growth" and whether the decline in ROIC will spread to the index level [21][25]. Chinese Stocks - This week, the overall Chinese stock market was slightly volatile, but there were bright spots in the structure. High - performance technology stocks and low - level cyclical stocks with high dividends led the gains. The leading sectors included gold and jewelry, optical modules, and oil and gas exploration [9][10]. - February is the month with the highest winning rate for A - shares over the years. In the short - term, under regulatory guidance, the slow - bull market is progressing steadily. It is recommended to focus on high - performance technology stocks and balance with low - level cyclical dividend - paying stocks. Next week, pay attention to the mapping opportunities of A - share hardware and Hong Kong stocks (Internet) when US tech giants release their earnings reports [12][13]. - In the medium - term, Chinese stocks are recommended to focus on three main lines: technology assets with clear industrial trends supported by policies, some new energy sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous metals sector benefiting from tight supply, strong structural demand, and interest - rate cut catalysis [13]. - A - share companies with expected profit growth of more than 100% are mainly concentrated in the electronics, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment industries [14].