ZJJH(SH:600160) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-01 12:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80% to 101%, with a median estimate of 3.74 billion yuan (yoy +91%) [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 290 million to 690 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 58% to 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 76% to 42% [4]. - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to asset impairment provisions totaling 320 million yuan, a significant drop in R22 prices, and reduced profitability and sales in petrochemical materials and basic chemical products [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 27.96 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 3.75 billion yuan for 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase of 91.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.39 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.80 yuan by 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 17.5% in 2025 to 22.5% in 2027 [5]. Market and Segment Analysis - The average price of R22 has significantly decreased, impacting the company's refrigerant segment, while the prices of mainstream third-generation refrigerants have continued to rise [6]. - The company sold 112,400 tons of refrigerants in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.8% [6]. - The sales price for refrigerants in Q4 2025 was 37,307 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13% due to the drop in R22 prices [6].