CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Soochow Securities·2026-02-02 00:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail and consumer services industry for 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant number of consumer promotion policies in 2026, focusing on "supply-side" initiatives that encourage new business models such as performance economy, cruise economy, and sports economy, rather than traditional methods like vouchers [4] - Service consumption is expected to be a key area of focus in 2026, with an emphasis on "quality supply" and "reform," particularly in tourism, department stores, and tea drinks [4] - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to see profits reflect changes in gold prices, with direct retail brands likely to benefit first from price stabilization [10] - The bulk trade sector is expected to recover from its lowest point, with both valuation and profitability anticipated to rise in 2026 [10] - The report highlights the importance of "consumption going abroad" as a long-term investment direction, emphasizing sustained performance growth over policy stimulus [10] - New consumption brands are expected to show a clear resurgence after the Lunar New Year, with market confidence likely to improve by late February or early March [11] - State-owned enterprise reform is identified as a core driver for promoting consumption, particularly in service-oriented sectors [12] Summary by Sections Weekly Industry Insights - The report predicts numerous consumer promotion policies in 2026, focusing on innovative business models rather than traditional methods [9] - Service consumption will be a primary focus area, with recommendations for companies in tourism and retail sectors [9] Weekly Market Review - From January 26 to February 1, the Shenyin Wanguo retail index increased by 2.16%, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [13] - Year-to-date performance from January 1 to February 1 shows the retail index up by 4.92% [13] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings for 2024 to 2026 [18] - Notable recommendations include companies like Pop Mart, Miniso, and various players in the gold and jewelry sector, all rated as "Buy" or "Overweight" [19][20]