Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-02-02 04:05Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors have undergone significant and concentrated downward adjustments to fully release risks, market trends in other sectors may follow, and funds will seek new thematic market trends. The anti-involution theme has many related varieties, low valuations, a certain safety margin, and sufficient volume to accommodate funds flowing out of non-ferrous and precious metals, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that the anti-involution theme may be inevitable in the 2026 market [2][5]. - The strength and weakness structure of the commodity market has changed significantly in recent weeks. Funds have flowed out significantly from the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors, while the chemical sector has seen continuous capital inflows, indicating a possible change in the theme of the market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Each Sector - Precious Metals: Gold and silver have fallen sharply in recent trading days. After a large increase in precious metals, there is a large amount of profit-taking. Once there are signs of adjustment, there may be a stampede in selling, with continuous capital outflows and a possible decline in volatility [4]. - Agricultural Products: The overall valuation of oils and fats is relatively low, and the price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. However, the demand for the feed end lacks strong logical support, and oils and fats are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4]. - Chemical Industry: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the framework of anti-involution, with national policies emphasizing the supply-demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PVC has seen continuous growth. The valuation of chemical products has reached the extreme [4]. - Black Sector: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside of coal is also limited. The coal supply guarantee market is approaching the end. In terms of market rhythm, low-valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non-ferrous sector [4]. 3.2 Capital Flows of Each Sector (in billions) | Sector | Capital Flow | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Total | 80.51 | 14.3 | | Precious Metals | 20.37 | 20.9 | | Non-ferrous Metals | -29.71 | -26.3 | | Black Sector | -10.17 | -22.7 | | Energy | 21.93 | 100.0 | | Chemical Industry | -9.79 | -24.2 | | Feed and Breeding | -3.87 | -14.1 | | Oils and Fats | 21.73 | 48.2 | | Soft Commodities | -13.58 | -81.6 | [9] 3.3 Weekly Data of Each Sector - Black and Non-ferrous Metals: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold are provided [9]. - Energy and Chemicals: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt are provided [11]. - Agricultural Products: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are provided [12].