科创债ETF：久期为何集体回撤

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The net - outflow of bond ETF funds has further narrowed, and the capital flow is expected to return to normal. With the obvious signs of the bond market's recovery in the past two weeks, it is expected that after the short - term disturbing factors subside, the capital flow of bond ETFs will return to normal and may be supported by the "good start" allocation funds [4][7]. - Convertible bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs are favored. The net inflow of convertible bond ETFs has been leading, and short - term financing ETFs have also seen a large inflow of funds. Meanwhile, science and technology innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs have relatively large net outflows [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETFs' Net Inflow of Funds - Last week, the net inflow of funds for interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was - 2.754 billion yuan, - 6.89 billion yuan, and + 4.395 billion yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was - 5.249 billion yuan. The net - outflow pressure of interest - rate and credit bond ETFs continued to narrow, while the net inflow of convertible bond ETFs increased significantly [4][7]. - As of January 30, 2026, the scale of bond ETF funds was 725.475 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous week's closing and 12.51% from the beginning of the year. However, its proportion in the total market ETF scale was 13.26%, a 55bp increase from the previous weekend [7]. 3.2 Share and Net Value Trends of Various Bond ETFs and Their Representative Products - Convertible bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs had the leading share increase. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the shares of various bond ETFs changed by different degrees compared with the previous week, with the total share of bond - type ETFs increasing by 1.3%. Compared with the end of last month, the total share of bond - type ETFs decreased by 2.4% [20]. - The net values of major bond ETFs generally increased, while the net value of convertible bond ETFs significantly declined. As of the close on January 30, 2026, the net values of selected representative bond ETFs changed to different extents compared with the close on January 16, 2026 and the end of last month [24]. 3.3 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF - The share outflow was concentrated. As of the close on January 30, 2026, the shares of 8 existing credit bond ETFs changed to different degrees compared with the close on January 23, 2026 [29]. - The net values increased slightly. As of the close on January 30, 2026, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs increased by 0.03% - 0.06% compared with the close on January 23, 2026, and increased by 0.19% - 0.31% compared with the end of last month [31]. 3.4 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - Most products had a net outflow of shares. The net inflow of shares of 24 existing science and technology innovation bond ETFs last week was - 69.59 million shares, a decrease of 2.38% compared with the previous week. Some products had significant net outflows, while a few had net inflows [36]. - The net values continued to rise. As of the close on January 30, 2026, the net values of some science and technology innovation bond ETFs ranked high. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.04% compared with the previous week, and the median net values of products tracking different indexes also increased to different degrees [38]. 3.5 Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs Last Week - Convertible bond ETFs had a significant decline. Only convertible bond ETFs, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF, 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi, and 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF had a decline in net value last week [41]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, most bond ETFs showed a discount, while only convertible bond ETFs and Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF had a positive premium rate. In terms of scale change, most bond ETF products' scales decreased, but convertible bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs had a large net inflow [41]. 3.6 Marginal Changes in the PCF Lists of Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - The estimated values of the modified durations of credit bond ETFs and E Fund Corporate Bond ETF changed relatively significantly, with an increase of 0.11 years and a decrease of 0.09 years respectively. The estimated values of the modified durations of most science and technology innovation bond ETFs were shortened, possibly due to the defensive portfolio strategy to avoid market volatility risks [43][45]. - Some bonds were repeatedly included in the PCF lists of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, belonging to industries such as coal, non - bank finance, and optional consumer retail. Some new - listed bonds were repeatedly included in the PCF lists of science and technology innovation bond ETFs, and some bonds were excluded from multiple science and technology innovation bond ETFs [44][45][48].