供需双弱，多晶硅持续走弱

Report Summary Industry Information - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries, analyzing their price trends, supply - demand situations, and downstream market conditions [1][2][3] Core Views - The current situation of industrial silicon is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to reduce, but strong cost support below. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2] - Polysilicon is also facing weak supply and demand, with high inventory levels. Affected by weak market sentiment, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - Price: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract closed at 8850 yuan/ton [2][4][6] - Supply: Xinjiang's large factories implemented production cuts at the end of last month, and the overall industrial silicon production decreased month - on - month. The national industrial silicon furnace - opening number was 224, the start - up rate was 27.79%, and the weekly output was 8.36 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons [2][16][18] - Demand: The weekly start - up of polysilicon was basically stable, and pre - holiday stocking was completed. The start - up of organic silicon increased slightly, but there were expectations of a decline in February. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was divided. In December, industrial silicon exports were 5.49 tons, a 7% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year increase [2] - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2] - Inventory: As of January 30, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from last week [2] - Price Difference: As of January 30, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 250 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [8][10] Polysilicon - Price: As of January 30, the spot price of N - type dense material was 57500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1500 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract closed at 47140 yuan/ton [3][12][14] - Supply: Since mid - last month, leading enterprises have actively implemented production suspension and reduction plans, and the supply has shrunk. The output in February will decline significantly month - on - month [3] - Demand: The start - up rate of downstream silicon wafer enterprises was low, and they were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. In December, polysilicon imports were 1872.8 tons, a 77% month - on - month increase; exports were 1670.4 tons, a 48% month - on - month decrease [3] - Cost: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3] - Inventory: As of January 30, the polysilicon factory inventory was 30.27 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from last week [3][20][22] Downstream Markets - Silicon Wafers: As of January 30, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased by 0.125, 0.125, 0.065 and 0.075 yuan/piece respectively from last week [24][26] - External - demand Battery Cells: As of January 30, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon increased by 0.025 yuan/watt respectively from last week [28][30] - Components: As of January 30, the prices of 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon increased by 0.02 yuan/watt respectively from last week [32][34] - Organic Silicon: As of January 30, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up increased slightly last week, with maintenance expected in February [37] - Aluminum Alloy: As of January 30, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum enterprises declined [39][41]