钢材周报：螺纹累库加快，钢价震荡运行-20260202

Report Title - Steel Weekly Report 20250202 [2] Report Core View - The inventory of rebar is accumulating rapidly, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply of rebar has slightly increased, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory continues to accumulate with an expanding increase. The hot-rolled coil production has increased, demand remains resilient, and inventory continues to decline. The cost side still provides support, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - Supply: Some steel mills have resumed production. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 199.83 million tons (+0.28), and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 309.21 million tons (+3.8) [4] - Demand: Rebar demand is weak, while hot-rolled coil demand remains resilient. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 176.5 million tons (-9.12), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 311.41 million tons (+1.45) [4] - Inventory: Rebar inventory is accumulating, while hot-rolled coil inventory continues to decline but still faces pressure. The total rebar inventory is 475.53 million tons (+23.43), social inventory is 326.4 million tons (+23.28), and steel mill inventory is 149.13 million tons (+0.15). The total hot-rolled coil inventory is 355.58 million tons (-2.2), social inventory is 278.33 million tons (-2.81), and steel mill inventory is 77.25 million tons (+0.61) [4] - Basis: As of January 30, the basis of the rebar main contract is 122 yuan/ton (-6), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract is -18 yuan/ton (-3) [4] - Summary: The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to 39.39%. The molten iron output is 277.98 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous period. The blast furnace operating rate is 79%, a 0.32% increase from the previous period, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The electric furnace operating rate is 70.66%, a 2.02% decrease from the previous period, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 55.71%, a 2.23% decrease from the previous period [4] Raw Materials - Raw Material Prices: The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), the price of main coking coal in Luliang is 1,483 yuan/ton (-57), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 789 yuan/ton (-10) [19] Market Conditions - Spot Prices: As of January 30, the national average price of rebar is 3,316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the national average price of hot-rolled coils is 3,299 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - Trading Volume: As of January 30, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 67,300 tons, and the trading volume is at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils is 29,400 tons, and the trading volume has decreased. The downstream cold-rolled output is 884,200 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, and it is at a high level compared to the same period last year [49][53] - Inventory: As of January 30, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 528,500 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of major steel products is 8.9098 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons from the previous period [56] - Exports: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, an increase of 197,800 tons from the previous period. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot-rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [66] Related Industries - Automobile Industry: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, an increase of 173,300 vehicles from the previous period; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, an increase of 106,900 tons from the previous period. In November, new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, an increase of 108,000 vehicles from the previous period; new energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, an increase of 108,000 tons from the previous period [70] - Real Estate Industry: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of housing was 597.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completed area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place for development enterprises were 93.117 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% [73][74]