万辰集团（300972）：25Q4同店改善超市场预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, indicating significant improvements in same-store sales that exceed market expectations [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a model iteration of discount supermarkets, which will enhance store efficiency and support future growth through store openings and potential H-share listings [6] - The company’s profitability is driven by three main factors: short-term fee optimization, medium-term management integration, and long-term development of proprietary brands [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a revenue midpoint of 14.84 billion yuan (26.6% year-on-year growth) and a net profit midpoint of 460 million yuan (119.6% year-on-year growth) [7] - The company expects to achieve a revenue midpoint of 51.4 billion yuan for the year 2025 (59.0% year-on-year growth) and a net profit midpoint of 1.32 billion yuan (348.0% year-on-year growth) [7] - The company’s revenue from its wholesale business is projected to grow by 28.4% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a significant acceleration in store openings [7] - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 new stores in Q4 2025, with a total of 4,000 new stores expected by the end of 2025, reaching a total of 18,000 stores [7] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit margin for Q4 2025 is expected to be between 2.8% and 3.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 to 1.6 percentage points [7] - The projected net profit margin for the wholesale business in Q4 2025 is expected to be between 5.3% and 6.6%, which is an increase of over 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s overall net profit margin is expected to continue its upward trend, with a forecasted increase in the proportion of net profit attributable to the parent company to approximately 55-60% in Q4 2025 [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 51.55 billion yuan, 65.31 billion yuan, and 77.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.5%, 26.7%, and 18.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.33 billion yuan, 2.12 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 351.3%, 60.1%, and 37.0% [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 29, 18, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]