ASML Holding(US:ASML) Guohai Securities·2026-02-02 13:16Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for ASML, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - ASML has entered a new growth cycle, driven by strong demand for EUV technology and robust order intake, with Q4 2025 orders significantly exceeding expectations [2][6]. - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of €9.718 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 29.3% and a year-over-year increase of 4.9% [2][6]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 was €2.840 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 33.7% and a year-over-year increase of 5.4% [2][6]. - The quarterly order value reached €13.158 billion, up 143.7% quarter-over-quarter and 85.6% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand [2][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for ASML are estimated at €38.323 billion for 2026, €45.454 billion for 2027, and €51.400 billion for 2028, with year-over-year growth rates of 17.31%, 18.61%, and 13.08% respectively [8]. - Net profit is expected to be €11.527 billion in 2026, €14.396 billion in 2027, and €17.268 billion in 2028, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 19.08%, 24.89%, and 19.95% [8]. - Diluted EPS is projected to be €29.79 for 2026, €37.20 for 2027, and €44.68 for 2028, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [8][9]. Market Performance - ASML's stock has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month increase of 32.7%, a 3-month increase of 32.3%, and a 12-month increase of 95.2% [5]. - The current stock price is $1,423.00, with a market capitalization of approximately $574.17 billion [5][6]. Order and Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, ASML's revenue included €5.309 billion from logic sales and €2.275 billion from storage sales, with a notable increase in logic revenue of 47.1% quarter-over-quarter [6]. - Revenue from mainland China was €2.730 billion, contributing 36% to total revenue, while revenue from the U.S. was €1.289 billion, contributing 17% [6].