2026年2月债券投资策略展望：经济非典型修复下的配置行情

Group 1 - The current macroeconomic environment features a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with market implied economic growth expectations potentially exceeding those of the past three years, while actual economic performance remains weak [3] - The recent configuration trend in the bond market shows that 10-year bonds are outperforming 30-year bonds, government bonds are better than policy bank bonds, and credit bonds are preferred over interest rate bonds [3] - In February, the overall environment is favorable for the bond market due to a policy and economic data vacuum, seasonal production slowdown, and strong initial configuration forces, although the weak asset status of bonds has not fundamentally reversed [3] Group 2 - The analysis of the bond market from Q4 2025 to the present indicates that the bond market experienced a range-bound fluctuation, with yields initially rising and then falling due to central bank bond purchases and fundamental downward pressure [36] - In January 2026, the bond market saw a recovery from pessimistic expectations, driven by configuration activities that led to a decline in bond yields, despite a generally bearish outlook [36] - The central bank's liquidity provision in January was ample, aiming to support economic activity and align with government bond issuance, although the pricing of funds remained restrained due to various influencing factors [41][45]