Visa(US:V) Haitong Securities International·2026-02-05 01:18Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Visa, with a target price raised to US$400.60, indicating a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of US$328.93 [2][7]. Core Insights - In 1Q FY26, Visa's total revenue reached US$15.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14.0%, slightly above expectations. Net revenue, after deducting client incentives, grew 14.6% to US$10.90 billion, also exceeding forecasts [3][11]. - The growth in revenue was driven by strong performance in Commercial and Money Movement Solutions (CMS) and Value-Added Services (VAS), with CMS revenue increasing by 20% year-over-year and VAS revenue up 28% year-over-year [3][11]. - Visa's stablecoin strategy has evolved into an integrated capability stack, expanding its card issuance and settlement services to over 50 countries, with stablecoin settlement volume reaching an annualized US$4.6 billion by the end of 2025 [5][12]. - Management remains optimistic about the company's outlook, maintaining full-year guidance unchanged, with projected net revenue growth of 11.3% for FY26, supported by resilient global payment trends and strong growth in CMS and VAS [7][16]. Financial Summary - For FY26, Visa expects net revenue growth of 11.3%, with diluted EPS projected to grow from US$12.93 in FY26 to US$15.94 by FY28, reflecting a sustained low double-digit growth rate [3][7]. - Operating expenses in 1Q FY26 rose by 16.2% year-over-year, influenced by unfavorable foreign exchange impacts and increased marketing expenses [3][11]. - Visa's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain high, at 59.5% for FY26, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 for the same year [2][3].