Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2026-02-05 09:54Economic Growth - Shenzhen's GDP is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, reaching 38,731.80 billion CNY, meeting the growth target[3] - The primary industry value added is expected to decline by 4.5%, while the secondary and tertiary industries will grow by 4.1% and 6.3%, respectively[4] - Shenzhen's GDP growth rate exceeds Guangdong's by 1.6 percentage points, with Guangdong's GDP growing by 3.9%[4] Foreign Trade - Total import and export volume in Shenzhen is expected to reach 45,533.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[5] - Exports are projected to decline by 2.6% to 27,387.81 billion CNY, while imports will increase by 8.0% to 18,146.08 billion CNY[5] - High-tech product exports are expected to grow by 10.1%[5] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in Shenzhen is projected to grow by 5.4%, with manufacturing increasing by 5.9%[10] - Key sectors such as general equipment manufacturing and computer/electronic equipment manufacturing are expected to grow by 13.9% and 6.2%, respectively[10] - Shenzhen's industrial growth rate is 2.4 percentage points higher than Guangdong's, which is expected to grow by 3.0%[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen is projected to decline by 21.7%, primarily due to a 31.0% drop in real estate development investment[15] - Investment in key industries like industrial technology transformation is expected to grow by 19.2%[15] - Shenzhen's investment growth rate is 4.4 percentage points lower than Guangdong's, which is expected to decline by 17.3%[16] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Shenzhen are expected to grow by 2.3%, reaching 10,259.93 billion CNY[19] - The share of Shenzhen's retail sales in Guangdong is projected to decrease from 22.22% in 2024 to 20.85% in 2025[20] - Online retail sales through limited units are expected to grow by 10.5%[19] Financial Sector - By the end of 2025, the balance of deposits in Shenzhen's financial institutions is expected to reach 146,346.95 billion CNY, growing by 7.8%[23] - The balance of loans is projected to reach 99,658.76 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 5.1%[23] - Shenzhen's deposit and loan balances account for approximately 35.84% and 33.31% of Guangdong's totals, respectively[23] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shenzhen is expected to rise by 0.2%, with food and beverage prices increasing by 0.2%[27] - Shenzhen's CPI growth rate is 0.4 percentage points higher than Guangdong's, which is projected to decline by 0.2%[27]