建筑材料行业：普通电子布存供需缺口，步入涨价大周期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Insights - The ordinary electronic cloth market is entering a price increase cycle due to a supply-demand gap, with expectations of sustained high demand and price elasticity for leading companies [6][33] - The demand for electronic cloth is projected to grow, with estimates of 3.66 billion meters under pessimistic conditions, 3.83 billion meters under neutral conditions, and 4.00 billion meters under optimistic conditions for 2026 [6][34] - The supply side is constrained by a fixed number of new weaving machines and a shift towards higher-margin AI electronic cloth production, leading to no expected increase in ordinary electronic cloth capacity [6][33] Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Cloth: A Key Material for Copper-Clad Laminates with Growth Potential - Electronic cloth is a crucial material for copper-clad laminates (CCL), with a cost share of approximately 20% in CCL and 30%-40% in PCB [14][15] - The market for electronic cloth is expected to maintain growth due to increasing demand from AI servers, communication, and consumer electronics [15][19] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis: Loom Shortages Expected in 2026 and 2027 - The supply-demand gap for ordinary electronic cloth in 2026 is projected to be -1.65 million meters under pessimistic conditions, with inventory levels remaining low even in adverse scenarios [6][33] - The demand for electronic cloth is expected to reach 3.66 billion meters under pessimistic conditions, with a decrease of 0.65 million meters, and 3.83 billion meters under neutral conditions, with an increase of 1.02 million meters [33][34] 3. Anticipated Long Duration of High Demand for Electronic Cloth - The current high demand for electronic cloth is expected to last, driven by supply constraints and rising copper prices, with leading companies having significant price elasticity [6][33] - The price of ordinary electronic cloth has already seen multiple increases, with cumulative price hikes reaching 1-1.2 RMB per meter [6][33] 4. Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Jushi is highlighted as a key player with significant price elasticity and cost advantages, making it a recommended investment [7][6] - The financial metrics for China Jushi indicate a reasonable value of 21.54 RMB per share, with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 [7]