流动性与同业存单跟踪：本次春节假期前后资金面的关注点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key factors affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival holiday are the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 may lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in a lower excess reserve level in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) caused by residents' cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank started to issue 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low certificate of deposit spread and credit spread fully reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds and remaining carry trade space [1][4]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, more attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the appreciation of the RMB. The 9 - day holiday may cause residents to return to work later, and RMB appreciation may consume commercial bank excess reserves [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 The Focus on the Capital Situation around the Spring Festival Holiday - The main factor affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival is the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 will lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in lower excess reserves in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and combined with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank issued 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low spreads reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds [1][4]. - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and RMB appreciation during the holiday [4][15]. 3.2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: The central bank conducted peak - shaving and valley - filling operations. From February 2 to February 6, the net issuance of pledged reverse repurchase was - 756 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term liquidity: The 3M term repurchase was renewed with an excess of 100 billion yuan [16]. 3.2.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situations - Capital supply (lenders): The net lending of large - scale banks reached a record high. Capital demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, and the relative leverage ratio increased [22][34]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: The volume was abundant, and the price was stable. The capital sentiment index showed a gradual easing trend [42][45]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps decreased slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained at a low level [49]. 3.3 Government Bonds 3.3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - The net payment of government bonds next week will increase significantly. The net payment in the past week was 460.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 643.7 billion yuan next week [52]. 3.3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - The report presents the issuance and proportion of government bonds with different maturities in 2024, 2025, and 2026, including treasury bonds and local government bonds [57][58]. 3.4 Certificates of Deposit 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - The report shows the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield curve and their changes compared with the previous week [62]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - As of February 6, the issuance and stock structures of certificates of deposit of different types of banks are presented, including the issuance and stock amounts and proportions of different maturities [66][67]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - The report analyzes the spreads of certificates of deposit, including the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and their quantiles since 2020 [69].