Lilly(US:LLY) Ping An Securities·2026-02-08 10:09Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Eli Lilly's total revenue for 2025 is projected to reach $65.179 billion, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 45%. The revenue for 2026 is expected to be between $80 billion and $83 billion. The two key products, Tirzepatide, are anticipated to contribute a combined global sales of $36.5 billion, with the diabetes version Mounjaro generating $22.965 billion (up 99% year-on-year) and the weight loss version Zepbound achieving $13.542 billion (up 175% year-on-year) [3]. - Eli Lilly's drug approval progress for 2025 includes the FDA approval of the multi-dose prefilled pen for Tirzepatide and the approval of a new indication for the drug Jaypirca. Applications for obesity indications of Orforglipron have been submitted to U.S. and Japanese regulatory agencies, along with submissions to the EU for both obesity and type 2 diabetes indications [3]. - The pipeline progress for Eli Lilly in 2025 includes positive results from Phase 3 clinical trials for the combination of Taltz and Tirzepatide in adult patients with active psoriatic arthritis and obesity. Orforglipron has shown positive clinical results in studies transitioning from injectable to oral incretin therapy, and Retatrutide has also shown positive results in studies involving obesity with knee osteoarthritis [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The biopharmaceutical industry is rated as stronger than the market, maintaining a positive outlook [3][4]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the increasing global competitiveness of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, focusing on potential therapeutic areas such as metabolic diseases, chronic diseases, and central nervous system disorders [4]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase of 0.14% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.33%. The pharmaceutical industry ranked 14th among 28 industries in terms of performance [8][18]. - The valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 29.57 times (TTM), with a premium of 10.50% over the overall A-shares excluding financials [23]. Notable Company Developments - Cloudtop announced the approval of Velsipity® for treating moderate to severe ulcerative colitis in China, marking a significant advancement in treatment options [12]. - BMS reported a total revenue of $48.194 billion for 2025, with the drug Opdivo generating $10.049 billion, reflecting an 8% increase [13]. - Innovent Biologics achieved a total product revenue of approximately 11.9 billion yuan for 2025, maintaining a strong growth rate of about 45% [15]. - Saintin Biotech announced a strategic collaboration with Genentech for RNAi drug development, highlighting ongoing innovation in the sector [16].