国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to be weak in the short - term. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market enters a seasonal lull under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The increase in the cost of broad - leaf pulp in the external market fails to be effectively transmitted to the domestic market due to weak demand. The price of softwood pulp is dominated by the sentiment of the futures market, and the actual downstream demand in the spot market is relatively weak, putting pressure on the pulp price. The buyer is dominant in the current supply - demand relationship, and the weak demand suppresses the pulp market. The production activities in the downstream base paper market slow down before the festival, and the near - stagnant procurement market makes the price lack support [98][99]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of February 5, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 612,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.41 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.4% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 6.7% month - on - month decrease. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.182 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.6% month - on - month increase, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend for five weeks [5][6]. - According to Longzhong Information on February 5, Chile's Arauco Company's February offer for softwood pulp was $710/ton, unchanged; the offer for broad - leaf pulp Star was $600/ton, an increase of $10/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was $620/ton, unchanged [6]. - Wuzhou Special Paper (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd.'s environmental impact assessment for a project with an annual output of 400,000 tons of high - grade information paper, 700,000 tons of paper, and 100,000 tons of coated paper is in its second public notice stage [7]. - On February 2, Guanhao High - tech (600433.SH) responded to investors' concerns. The land acquisition of Hongta Renheng's Qianshan Factory and the progress of key projects have entered the substantive stage. The 400,000 - ton chemi - mechanical pulp project of Zhanjiang Zhongzhi was put into production ahead of schedule, and the substitution rate of similar pulp types is close to 80%. The pilot test line of special fiber composite materials has been put into trial operation [8]. 3.2 Market Data - Base Difference and Month - to - Month Difference - On February 6, 2026, the base difference of Silver Star was 66 yuan/ton, a 230% month - on - month increase; the base difference of Russian Needle was - 134 yuan/ton, a 10.67% month - on - month increase; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, a 17.65% month - on - month increase [15]. - On February 6, 2026, the 03 - 05 month - to - month difference was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 22 yuan/ton, with month - on - month increases of 9.09% and 38.89% respectively [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish remained stable, while the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish decreased. On February 6, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 520 yuan/ton, a 5.45% month - on - month decrease [25][27]. - The import profits of softwood and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline. On February 6, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 363 yuan/ton, a 3.69% month - on - month decrease; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 218 yuan/ton, a 73.96% month - on - month decrease [31]. - The price of the main pulp contract fluctuated weakly. The spot price of imported softwood pulp declined due to insufficient market confidence and lack of support from the demand side. The spot price of imported broad - leaf pulp also declined as the downstream base paper price was stable, the enterprise's pre - festival processing intention weakened, and the raw material stocking was coming to an end [33][35]. - The price of natural pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp: On February 6, 2026, the price of Venus was 4,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price of Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [40]. - Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [42]. - The price of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp decreased slightly this period, and the supply increased. On February 5, 2026, the weekly production of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp was 86,000 tons, a 1.18% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In December 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe increased, and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline in November [51]. - In November 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of broad - leaf pulp was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [53]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased significantly month - on - month [57][60]. - In December 2025, the total export volume of broad - leaf pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China increased significantly month - on - month. In January 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp to China decreased month - on - month [64]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the import volume of natural and chemi - mechanical pulp increased significantly [66]. - Demand - Double - offset paper: The domestic double - offset paper market was slightly adjusted this period, with a weakening trading atmosphere. The supply was abundant, the production was under pressure, and the demand from the consumer side was weak. Some enterprises implemented a profit - sharing strategy to relieve the shipment pressure [70]. - Coated paper: The price of the domestic coated paper market was stable this period. The industry faced the dual pressures of high costs and weak demand, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The supply was abundant, and the downstream consumption was flat [74]. - White cardboard: The price of the white cardboard market was stable this period. The impact of cost on the white cardboard market weakened. The production of white cardboard increased by 5.74% month - on - month, which had a negative impact on the price. The demand decreased, and the paper mills' production and sales pressure increased [78]. - Household paper: The price of the household paper market was stable. The overall trading atmosphere was light, and the demand improvement was limited. The industry's overall operating rate decreased [82]. - Terminal demand: In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the production of dairy products, increased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. Year - on - year, the retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level [88]. 3.4 Inventory - Futures inventory: On February 6, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 131,400 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory warehouse) was 15,000 tons, a 36.36% month - on - month increase [89]. - Spot inventory: The port inventory was at a medium - to - high level within the year. The inventory of Qingdao Port continued to increase, the inventory of Changshu Port decreased slightly, and the overall inventory of mainstream port samples in China increased this period [95].