全球大类资产配置周报：黄金领涨、白银拖累，全球市场在交易什么？-20260208

Global Asset Performance - Central banks' monetary policies are diverging, with Australia raising interest rates for the first time in two years, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged [4][5] - Amazon is expected to increase capital expenditures by over 50% this year to build AI infrastructure, impacting its stock price negatively [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance is seen as favorable for economic stability, with a projected growth of approximately 2.2% in 2026 [4][5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold rose by 5.13%, while COMEX silver fell by 1.28% due to increased margin requirements and selling pressure from leveraged positions [9][10] - The core logic for gold's bull market has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring [10] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from global green transitions, indicating a positive long-term demand structure [10] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed a significant bull steepening, with the 2-year yield declining sharply due to weak labor market data, while long-term yields fell less due to inflation concerns [20][24] - The Chinese bond market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with the yield curve showing complex changes, particularly in the 10-year and 30-year bonds [24][25] - Long-term expectations suggest a potential decline in Chinese bond yields, with the 10-year yield possibly falling to the 1.6%-1.8% range by the end of 2026 [25] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.51%, driven by a significant sell-off in global tech stocks and traditional safe-haven trading [27] - The euro against the dollar fell by 0.30%, influenced by the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates and easing inflation pressures [34] - The British pound declined by 0.95%, affected by internal policy disagreements and expectations of potential rate cuts [39] Equity Market - The market is shifting from tech growth stocks to value stocks, with traditional sectors like finance and energy leading gains, while tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ faced declines [43][48] - Notable performances include the Indian SENSEX30 rising by 3.54% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.50% [43] - The outlook suggests that if higher interest rates become the norm, growth stocks may face ongoing valuation pressure, while stable value stocks could outperform [48]