Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-02-08 14:28Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the apple price trend includes the weak trading atmosphere of fruit farmers' goods during the mid - late stage of Spring Festival stockpiling and the potential return of the logic of scarce delivery products to the market. The short - term market game eases, and the market may enter an adjustment phase waiting for new drivers [2]. - The AP2603 contract is approaching delivery. The market focuses on Spring Festival consumption. The inventory removal accelerated last week, but the spot price was weak and stable. The AP2605 is stronger than AP2603. The AP2603 and AP2604 contracts in the off - season may decline. The AP2605 may be affected by weakening demand at the end of stockpiling, and its trend depends on whether the logic of scarce delivery products returns [5][6][7]. - The apple market was in a sideways shock last week. The main contract was flat, and the near - month contract declined slightly. The overall position decreased. Profit - taking seats, foreign investment, and retail investors all reduced their net short positions [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The Spring Festival stockpiling in apple - producing areas is in the mid - late stage. The trading atmosphere of fruit farmers' goods is weak, and the inventory removal rhythm has accelerated. The sales of fruit farmers' goods are concentrated on two - end quality products. The demand for gift box packaging is in the later stage, and the transfer volume has decreased. The sales of some merchants' goods in the west have improved slightly, and the price of high - quality goods remains firm. The arrival volume in the sales area is dense, but the sales situation has not improved significantly. The price of ordinary - quality fruit farmers' goods is weak, and the price of high - quality goods is stable [2]. - The logic of scarce delivery products may return to the market. The previous strong operation of the apple market was due to the shortage of delivery products. Currently, the market logic has shifted to fundamentals, but there is a possibility of a return [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: Sideways shock. The apple market was in a sideways shock last week, with the main contract flat, the near - month contract slightly down, and the overall position decreasing. Profit - taking seats, foreign investment, and retail investors all reduced their net short positions [9]. - Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target. The spread strategy is to wait and see [10][11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 38.9% over three years [12]. - Hedging Strategy Table: Multiple hedging strategies have been carried out and have all been profitably exited [12]. - Inventory Management: To prevent losses from new - season inventory stacking, enterprises can short apple futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. The recommended shorting ratio for AP2603 is 25% at 9800 - 10000, and the recommended selling ratio for AP2603C10000 is 25% at 160 - 180 [13]. - Procurement Management: To prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy apple futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs. The recommended buying ratio for AP2603 is 50% at 9300 - 9400, and the recommended selling ratio for AP2603P9400 is 75% at 140 - 160 [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons from last week. The inventory removal speed accelerated compared to last week and was higher than the same period last year [14]. - As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio was about 42.79%, 4.08% lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.85% this week, and the inventory removal rate was 23.41% [14]. - The inventory removal rhythm in the producing areas accelerated. The sales were mainly through packaging and shipping. Merchants actively digested their own inventory. The sales of fruit farmers' goods were concentrated on two - end quality products. The demand for gift box packaging was in the later stage, and the transfer volume decreased. The sales of some merchants' goods in the west improved slightly, and the price of high - quality goods remained firm. The arrival volume in the sales area was dense, but the sales situation did not improve significantly. The price of ordinary - quality fruit farmers' goods was weak, and the price of high - quality goods was stable [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - The weekly inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian on Thursday Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: The main apple contract was flat last week, the near - month contract declined slightly, and the position decreased. The short - term market game eased, and the market may enter an adjustment phase waiting for new drivers [17]. - Basis and Spread Structure: The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The 3 - 5 spread weakened slightly last week. If the demand falls, the 3 - 5 spread may decline. If the market logic returns to the shortage of delivery products, the 3 - 5 spread may widen [20][21]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Apple profits are mainly divided into planting profits and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, there are more poor - quality apples and fewer high - quality apples, posing a great challenge to storage [23]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Affected by spring hot and dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, the apple yield and quality decreased significantly this year. The estimated total apple output in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year. The inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower [25].