南华期货光伏产业周报：供需双弱，宽幅震荡-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated widely this week. The core logic driving the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side production suspension and resumption, downstream demand - side production scheduling, photovoltaic export rush, and anti - involution. The industry presents a "weak supply and weak demand" characteristic, with supply expansion slowing and downstream production under pressure. Due to the export tax - refund window in April, there may be an export rush for photovoltaic modules, but the overall market is mainly focused on inventory consumption [3]. - The polysilicon futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 83.6% [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The current polysilicon market is affected by supply - side production changes, downstream demand, export rush, and anti - involution. The industry shows a "weak supply and weak demand" situation, with supply - side production declining and downstream production also under pressure. The market is mainly consuming inventory, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution progress [3]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - Polysilicon Futures Price Range: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% in the past 3 years [9]. - Photovoltaic Industry Risk Management Strategy Suggestions: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, including using futures contracts and option combinations, with recommended hedging ratios [9]. 3.2 Market Information - On January 31 (Saturday), some leading polysilicon companies held a meeting to discuss polysilicon market - related matters. On February 5, a photovoltaic industry - related meeting was held to focus on capacity optimization and price order rectification [11]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Market Review and Technical Analysis: The polysilicon weighted index closed at 49,536 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week increase of 5.06%. The trading volume was 12,451 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 47.72%, and the open interest was 65,885 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,229 lots. The PS2605 - PS2606 spread was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 470 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,610 lots, a week - on - week increase of 190 lots. The futures price is expected to face resistance at 52,000 yuan/ton [15]. - Option Situation: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon fluctuated widely in the past week. The option open - interest PCR showed a weakening trend [17][18]. - Capital Trends: The long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed a stable trend in the past week [20]. - Spread Structure: The polysilicon futures term structure is in a contango structure [22]. - Basis Structure: The basis of the main contract showed a slightly stronger oscillation this week, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of taking goods from the futures market periodically [26]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules are provided, showing different price changes [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profit margin of polysilicon enterprises is weakening. From the spot market, the spot profit of polysilicon is declining. In terms of production technology, the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.99% [30]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic Production: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with the SMM - weekly production at 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% and a month - on - week decrease of 15.55%. The Baichuan - weekly production was 19,220 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78% and a month - on - week decrease of 27.14%. The Baichuan - weekly utilization rate was 31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0313 and a month - on - week decrease of 26.19% [38]. - Overseas Production: The overseas polysilicon monthly production and utilization rate data are provided [40]. - Inventory: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory increased. The total weekly inventory was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.63% and a month - on - week increase of 10.22% [43]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 11.66% and a month - on - week decrease of 1.33% [46]. - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77% and a month - on - week increase of 7.97% [46]. 3.5.3 Battery Cell Supply - Production: The monthly production and utilization rate data of battery cells are provided, including different types of battery cells such as Topcon, BC, and HJT [53]. - Inventory: The weekly battery cell inventory was 9.17 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.80% and a month - on - week increase of 2.80% [56]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - Production: The monthly production and utilization rate data of photovoltaic modules are provided, including N - type and P - type modules [59]. - Inventory: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 24.7 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 5.36% and a month - on - week decrease of 17.67% [62]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic module winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 137.33 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 46.84% and a month - on - week decrease of 95.83%. The average winning bid price was 0.78 yuan/watt, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a month - on - week increase of 6.85% [64]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new - installed capacity of Chinese photovoltaics and the data of green power generation (including wind and solar power) are provided [68][70].