ZTO EXPRESS(US:ZTO) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-02-09 04:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Long-term competition in the e-commerce express delivery market is expected to improve [12] - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak and performance forecast periods, with a sustainable recovery in demand and a tightening supply situation [12] - The shipping market is expected to see a positive outlook due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - ZTO Express forecasts a revenue range of 48.5 to 50 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 12.9%. The company expects a package volume of 38.52 billion pieces, a 13.3% increase year-on-year [5] - The company plans to issue $1.5 billion in convertible preferred notes, with a net amount of approximately $1.404 billion, to refinance and repurchase shares [6] - The express delivery market is characterized by significant growth opportunities for companies like YTO Express and SF Express, driven by market share increases and operational stability [12] Aviation - Global air passenger traffic is projected to reach 10.2 billion in 2026, a 3.9% year-on-year increase, with strong demand expected to continue [7] - The Spring Festival travel volume is expected to reach 95 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% [8] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates a strong demand for air travel in 2025, with a 5.3% increase in global passenger demand [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical developments and trade agreements, particularly with India ceasing oil purchases from Russia [9] - The BDI index increased by 1.1% to 2011 points, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [11] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.63% week-on-week, with container throughput rising by 12.41% [12] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.27% and highway freight vehicle traffic up by 4.75% [12] - The road passenger volume decreased by 2.60% year-on-year, while rail passenger volume increased by 8.52% [12] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics sector in South China is undergoing transformation, providing performance elasticity and potential for value reassessment [12] - The chemical logistics market is expanding, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies [12] Ports - The port sector is stabilizing, with strong cash flow and a focus on hub growth potential [12]